Which Way the Okavango?
by Elizabeth Soderstrom and Steve Rothert

      Spreading like an open hand across the Kalahari Desert in Botswana, the
Okavango Delta is a seasonal wetland the size of Massachusetts. It
supports hundreds of species of birds, mammals, reptiles and fish, and
forms the livelihood for nearly 100,000 delta residents. In addition,
Botswanas tourism industry, which ranks second only to diamonds in
Botswanas national economy, depends on the seasonal flooding of the
delta.
      Ever since tectonic activity altered the landscape of southern Angola
two million years ago, the Okavango River has brought water from the
Angolan highlands, through Namibias Caprivi Strip to the parched sands
of the Kalahari. Over the millennia, plants, animals and communities
adapted to the dramatic annual alternation between lush wetlands and
inhospitable withered grassland. Because little has changed in the
Okavango basin as a whole, the delta remains relatively pristine. It
appears, however, that the deltas unaltered days could be numbered.

The Positive and Negative
      The Okavango Delta ecosystem and the communities that depend on it are
at a crossroads. Never before in the deltas two million year history
have so many potentially positive forces gathered at once, and never
before have so many threats clouded its future. On the positive side,
the Okavango River Basin Commission (OKACOM: a trinational river basin
commission made up of Angola, Namibia and Botswana) has begun to
develop an integrated basin wide management plan; the Government of
Botswana has declared the Okavango Delta a wetland of international
significance through the Ramsar Convention, and will soon develop a
National Wetlands Policy; and, there is discussion in some circles of
proposing an international park that could include the delta and parts
of Namibia and Angola. The optimism such a list might produce is
tempered, however, by potential threats. For example, Namibia plans to
divert water from the Okavango River upstream of the delta to supply
water for its capital city, Windhoek. Perhaps more threatening to the
Delta, are reports that an estimated 2 million peoplemore than the
total population of Botswanacould settle along the Okavango River in
Angola to avoid areas plagued by civil war.

The Cast of Characters
    These two examples by themselves do not necessarily spell the end of a
healthy river and delta ecosystem. They represent a clarion call to all
those concerned about this rich and unique aquatic ecosystem that the
Okavango River and Delta have been thrust center stage into a rapidly
developing drama. This drama is dominated by a varied cast of
characters, including: the people who live in and around the delta, the
urban dwellers in need of a water supply, the safari lodge operators,
resident and migratory wildlife, villagers fleeing warfare,
representatives of OKACOM, local and international environmental groups
and government ministers. The stage is set, the curtain drawn, but the
script is yet to be written. It seems the Okavango debut could go
several ways.

The Hope
      We, the critics, hope for significant character development. For
example, OKACOM could play a clear leading role and emerge as a world
example of an institutional arrangement to manage an international
river basin. OKACOM could build consensus among the three riparian
countries, involve all the stakeholders in deliberations over water
allocations, develop conflict management capabilities, and shepherd the
development of a comprehensive basin-wide integrated water management
plan. This management plan could provide a detailed guide for
protecting and monitoring the continued health of the ecosystem, while
promoting the economic well-being of the basins residents.
      Alternately, character development may fall flat. For example, OKACOM
may prove unable to provide a platform for regional discussion, the
result being a consensus-making process never materializes. The
integrated basin management plan may fail to raise and answer critical
questions about the deltas ecology and end up providing poor guidance
for setting diversion levels and managing water sharing in times of
drought. In addition, failing to see the link between the health of the
delta and the health of the industry, tourism may expand beyond the
carrying capacity of the delta and contribute to its demise.
      Second, we, the critics, hope for a complex and rich plot that takes
interesting twists due to creative strategies to conserve water and
develop alternative supplies. We hope to be surprised by the unique
alliances that are formed by the likes of government ministries and
environmental NGOs to develop water quality protection and monitoring
programs. We also look to applaud the unexpected role that seemingly
minor characters such as scientists and village chiefs have on the
outcome.

The Possible
      Alternately, the plot may quickly emerge as the predictable one we have
seen before. For example, the riparian states may largely ignore the
laudable principles of participation and environmental protection
stated in the OKACOM agreement, and instead sacrifice the integrity of
the river and delta for short term economic gain. The more powerful or
upstream riparian countries may control the process to the detriment of
the less powerful and downstream users. Power politics may override
consensus-building efforts with tensions between all three countries
escalating to the point of international conflict.
    In closing, we recognize the great promise of this drama and also its
many potential pitfalls. Although tragedies often provide instructive
life lessons, we hope this drama is one that unfolds not as a tragedy
but one that we can return to again and again as a classicfull of great
acts, both big and small.

(Elizabeth Soderstrom is a Overseas Science, Engineering, and Diplomacy
Fellow with the American Association for the Advancement of Science
based at USAIDs Regional Center for Southern Africa,Gaborone, Botswana.
Steve Rothert is the Southern African Representative for International
Rivers  Network in Gaborone.)